SABR Neighbor

When is the appropriate time to start getting seriously concerned about your team’s chances of making the playoffs? I have to ask because I am a Yankees fan, and the Yankees have made the playoffs every year since I began following this great sport back in 1996. There were a handful of things I knew for sure when I was young: Cory and Topanga would end up together, I would get a A+ in spelling class, and the Yankees would make the playoffs and compete for a title. Even over the last three years, when the Yanks got off to slow starts and would eventually turn it on and catch whoever was in front of them, it was never a question of if.

In 2005, New York’s winning percentage before the All-Star Break was .535,  compared to .645 following it. 2006 (.581/.618) and 2007 (.500/.671)  offered the same story: the Yankees saved their best baseball for the second half of the season. In fact, this year is following the exact same pattern, as the Yankees have posted a .650 winning percentage since the break, after playing .526 ball in the first half.

But for some reason, this year feels different. Maybe it’s the underperforming offense, who hasn’t been able to find a rhythm with all the injuries they’ve suffered. Maybe it’s the expectations of having made the playoffs in thirteen consecutive seasons, coupled with Joe Girardi’s first year replacing Joe Torre. But to me, the issue begins and ends with the pitching staff.

While the Yankees have had far from a dynamite staff the last few years, they have had some consistency. 2008 has been as unstable a stretch run as I can remember for the Yankees pitchers. Chien-Ming Wang, the unquestioned ace and rock of the rotation, will probably miss the rest of the regular season. Joba Chamberlain, who had pitched so well as a converted starter, hopes to be back in the rotation by the end of the month after suffering a shoulder injury. The 2008 ticket of Hughes/Kennedy was derailed faster than Ron Paul’s bid for president. Sidney Ponson and Darrell Rasner have made 22 combined starts for the Yankees, for crying out loud!

And for all I can say about the revolving door of fourth and fifth starters for the Yankees, it was Andy Pettitte’s last two starts that have me reaching for the panic button. In two games the Yankees really couldn’t afford to lose (first game of a four game set hosting Anaheim, second game of a four game set visiting Texas), Pettitte gave up fourteen earned runs in ten and a third innings. Don’t get me wrong, Pettitte has taken the ball every fifth day and offered a modicum of stability to the rotation. But when a veteran with as much big-game experience as Pettitte gets lit up by two playoff-caliber teams in must-win games, you start thinking that it might not be their year. There’s a scene from Rounders where Ed Norton, fresh out of jail, meets an old acquaintance who has collected all his outstanding debt and doubled it, partnering with ruthless mob boss Teddy KGB in the process. Norton is sarcastic and cracking jokes before the encounter, but has the wind taken out of his sails the second he learns his fate.

That’s how I felt after Pettitte’s stinker against Texas. I had my Ed Norton moment, where everything changed in the blink of an eye. While I am far from throwing in the towel on a team with a $200 million payroll, it’s hard to have the same sheer confidence I did ten days ago. The Yankees are only 5.5 games out of the division lead and only 3 out of the wild card, so anything can happen. Ian Kennedy is set to pitch in twenty minutes against the Angels, and maybe he can regain the form he had down the stretch in 2007 (3-0, 1.89 ERA). Maybe Joba will be pitching at full strength in two weeks. Maybe Phil Hughes and even Carl Pavano can recover from their injuries and make contributions to this team down the stretch. Only time will tell.

This weekend series against the Angels, with starts by Kennedy and Dan Giese in the cards, should offer some answers as to whether or not the Yankees will be left standing at the end of September. So the oxygen masks haven’t come down from the ceiling yet, but cabin pressure is dropping. And since I just ended a paragraph hoping that Carl Pavano could contribute to a pennant race, well, I should probably get ready for a little bit of turbulence before our landing.

I love how quickly a blog post can become out of date. Just last night I was writing about how Manny Ramirez is the biggest “Mystery Man” in the American League pennant race and how the Red Sox are contenders as long as they have him, and today all the baseball chatter is about Manny likely getting traded to Florida. Such is life, I suppose. Here are a few players whose contributions will go a long way to deciding who represents the NL in the Fall Classic.

10. Jeff Suppan, Milwaukee Brewers

There is no question about the abilities of Ben Sheets and C.C. Sabathia, the top two arms in Milwaukee’s rotation. The main question about the back end of the rotation (Manny Parra, Dave Bush) is big game experience. The middle man in this equation is No. 3 starter Suppan, someone who has no shortage of NL playoff experience (3-3, 3.00 ERA in 9 career postseason starts with St. Louis, AND the 2006 NLCS MVP award). While he is having a bad season statistically, his veteran leadership will be huge in determining how deep the Brewers go in the playoffs.

9. Jason Isringhausen, St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals face an uphill climb as it is, playing in the same division as the two best teams in the National League. They haven’t done themselves any favors, blowing an astounding 25 saves this season already. Isringhausen, who has 7 of those blown saves, needs to regain his status as a top flight closer for the Cardinals to have the slightest chance of surpassing the Cubs or Brewers. Remember, this is a guy who has saved at least 32 games in all but one season since 2000.

8. Ryan Ludwick, St. Louis Cardinals

I felt it was right to put Ludwick next to Isringhausen on the list because they both are very important to the success of the Cardinals. Ludwick’s All-Star campaign has come out of the clear blue sky, and St. Louis wouldn’t even be dreaming about the playoffs if not for it. I can’t see the Cardinals keeping this up though, due to their aforementioned bullpen problems, lackluster lineup, and pitching staff that has Kyle Lohse as its de facto ace.

7. Kosuke Fukudome, Chicago Cubs

There isn’t a whole lot to complain about in Cubbieland right now, but if the North Side faithful have anything to be concerned about, it has to be the production of their prized import. Fukudome started his MLB career great (.327 in March/April) but has seen his average drop in each month following, to a dismal .225 in July. With Alfonso Soriano back in the lineup, the Cubs’ lineup is one of the best in the NL, but getting more consistent hitting from Fukudome is a big key to a deep October run.

6. Jorge Cantu, Florida Marlins

I can’t believe I have Jorge Cantu on a list of the ten most important players in the pennant race, but I do. He has been having a great year in Florida and has been batting third, trying to bridge the gap from Hanley Ramirez to Dan Uggla and Mike Jacobs. Much like Ludwick, Cantu will need to keep his game elevated at this level for the Marlins to challenge the Mets and Phillies in the NL East. Of course, getting a certain troubled outfielder from Boston could certainly help their cause, too….

5. Salomon Torres, Milwaukee Brewers

With Eric Gagne rendered completely impotent as a closer, Torres has been charged with the task of shutting the door and closing out games for the Brew Crew. He has already saved 20 games this year, but had only saved 29 in his 11 seasons prior. The Brewers cannot afford to have Torres remember he has never closed for a contender before and lose his cool, as David Riske, Guillermo Mota, and Gagne are the guys next in line for the closer role.

4. Ryan Howard, Philadelphia Phillies

No one is denying his talent. He was the Rookie of the Year in 2005 and the Most Valuable Player in 2006. His last two seasons have resulted in home run totals of 58 (’06) and 47 (’07). His 2007 campaign also resulted in 199 strikeouts, a major league record. He’s only hitting .235 and is on pace for 350 strikeouts this season (Ok, so he’s not striking out THAT much, but he will exceed 200 whiffs at his current pace). Perhaps the most disturbing stat is the drop in Howard’s batting average over the last two years. Howard hit .313 to go along with his 58 dingers during 2006. I don’t know if he fell in love with the long ball or has developed a few holes in his swing, but he needs to rediscover his .300 level talent if the Phillies want to defend their NL East title.

3. Randy Johnson, Arizona Diamondbacks

Before the season, I picked the Diamondbacks to win the NL pennant. I believed that the Dan Haren trade made their pitching staff the best in the league and that the young offense would round into form. Remember, this is a team that made the playoffs despite being outscored by twenty runs last year. They were the hottest team in the bigs in April, but then the wheels started to fall off. The young outfielders (Chris Young, Justin Upton) cooled off. Injuries (Eric Byrnes, Chad Tracy) started to take their toll. And then Micah Owings forgot how to pitch (ERA by month: 3.48/4.74/8.22/11.37). The Diamondbacks are still the best team in their division, but that’s not saying much considering their level of competition. However, with Randy Johnson pitching like a legitimate number three starter and superprospect Max Scherzer waiting to be called up to help the team for the stretch run, Arizona still can be a contender for the NL crown.

2. Carlos Delgado, New York Mets

Mets fans got what they wanted when Willie Randolph got the axe. They got their scapegoat, someone they could direct their venom towards. With Jerry Manuel at the helm, the Mets have climbed back to the top of the NL East. At the time of his firing, I argued that it was an underperforming team, not a soft-spoken manager, that was to blame. I blamed guys like Delgado, someone who was getting $16 million and playing like a has-been. Maybe he is a frequent reader of SABR Neighbor, because he has been a changed man in the month of July. His July OPS is 1.206, an astounding .450 better than any other month in 2008. To throw some more splits out there, Delgado is hitting much better in Mets wins (.307) than losses (.211). He is now batting cleanup, offering much needed protection for David Wright and setting the table for Carlos Beltran. While the Mets will still have to grapple with the memory of their historic choke last September, perhaps the increased play of their high-priced talent will be enough to avoid a similar disaster if they find themselves in this situation again.

1. Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs

He is a flamethrower with dazzling stuff that has been thrust into the closer role following the injury to Kerry Wood. There is no set timetable for Wood’s return, and that leaves the expectations of a tortured fan base and 100 years of disappointment resting squarely on the right arm of this 25-year-old. It is nearly impossible to win a pennant without a strong bullpen, and while Marmol possesses the physical gifts to be a force as a closer or a set-up man, it is yet to be seen if he can handle the pressure that comes with the job. With the Milwaukee Brewers ready to engage in a two-month slugfest for division supremacy, will Marmol be able to rise to the occasion? Who knows, and that’s what makes him the National League’s ultimate Mystery Man for the next two months.

(Unless Manny Ramirez switches leagues in the next 12 hours. Then this will have to become a top 11 list.)

Two months left in the season. Put up or shut up. Do or die. Go big or go home. You can insert any overused cliche here to say that it’s crunch time. There are less than sixty games left in the MLB season for each team, and in the American League, ten teams are above .500. Oakland and Detroit are both seven games out of the wild card race. While they might not have the most realistic playoff aspirations, they are in the hunt, which will make the next two months a mad dash to the finish line. With that in mind, I have a list of some players who will have big impacts upon the AL playoff race. You could normally use the term “X-Factor” to describe them, but I hate that term, so I will use the term “Mystery Man” instead. As in, it is no mystery that the success of these teams will rely on the contributions of these men.

10. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers

Any shot at a Detroit playoff run starts with him. While he is having a solid year for a third baseman, he’s not having a solid year for Miguel Cabrera. He’s batting 25 points lower than his career average, and is on pace for the lowest RBI total in a full year of his still young career. The entire Detroit lineup improves if Cabrera plays like the MVP candidate he has been in Florida the past four years.

9. Johnny Damon, New York Yankees

I could put Derek Jeter or Robbie Cano on this list as Yankees batters who are important to the race, but here’s the stat that matters most. Johnny Damon’s on base percentage is .384. The combined OBP of Melky Cabrera and Brett Gardner, the two guys who would get the most time at leadoff if Damon is unable to play, is .293. The Yankees lineup, expected to score 1000 runs this season, has underperformed (to put it delicately) and getting a catalyst like Damon back could go a long way to sparking the offense.

8. Roy Halladay, AJ Burnett, Toronto Blue Jays

If the Blue Jays intend to make a run at the wild card or AL East, they first will need find their power stroke. (Matt Stairs leads Toronto with 11 home runs. That is not a misprint.) But even if they slip out of the playoff hunt, they will still play a big role in deciding the American League. Starting with an August 11th series against the Detroit Tigers, the Jays will play twelve of their final fourteen series against possible contenders (Boston four times, New York three times, Tampa twice, Detroit/Minnesota/Chicago once each). Barring injury and factoring for the occasional day off, the Jays’ top two hurlers are in line to pitch 15-18 times against teams gunning for the postseason, and nothing would help remedy a disappointing season than knocking a contender out of the picture.

7. Paul Konerko, Chicago White Sox

Remember when he had back-to-back-to-back 30/100 years? Seems like a century ago, but from 2004-2006, Konerko was an elite first baseman. His batting average is hovering in the .210 range, and he is a major hole in the Chicago lineup. I understand he’s missed some time with injury, but Jermaine Dye and Carlos Quentin will not be able to carry the team all the way through September. If the White Sox got even half-decent batting numbers from Konerko (or Nick Swisher, for that matter), they would be a lock to win that division. Without those guys performing though, the door is wide open for Minnesota or Detroit to swoop in.

6. Carlos Pena, Tampa Bay Rays

Major oversight by me in the first draft of this post not putting in a Tampa player. Perhaps it’s because I think they’re going to slip out of contention, even though they have the most upside of any team in the league. Pena had a Silver Slugger campaign last year, hitting .282 with 46 homers and 122 RBI. He has taken a major step backward this year, posting numbers of .239/17/54. He’s walking less, striking out more, and is playing like the player who has played for five franchises since 2001. The Tampa Bay offense is much tamer without him performing well. That having been said, if he turns it on for the last two months of the year and the pitching holds up, Tampa Bay has a great shot to complete their storybook run and make the playoffs.

5. Starters #4 and #5, New York Yankees

Assuming that Mike Mussina’s bad game against Baltimore was an aberration and not a sign of things to come, the Yankees only have three reliable starters at this point in Moose, Andy Pettitte, and Joba Chamberlain. The honeymoon appears to be over for Darrell Rasner and Sidney Ponson, who have been getting knocked around of late. Be it Ian Kennedy, Phil Hughes, Jarrod Washburn, Chien-Ming Wang, or anyone else they can salvage from trades or the farm system, the back end of the Yankees rotation will dictate if they make the playoffs for a 13th straight year.

4. Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn, Francisco Liriano, Kevin Slowey, Minnesota Twins (tie)

I have to include all four of these kids in the discussion, the Baker/Blackburn/Slowey triumvirate have exceeded expectations all year and have Minnesota right in the thick of the AL Central race. Liriano should be called up in the next two weeks, which will be a shot in the arm for this team. However, pitching meaningful games all the way into September will be a new challenge for a batch of inexperienced arms (135 combined career starts, 64 from Scott Baker alone).

3. Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston Red Sox

Ellsbury started off the year on a tear, posting a .853 OPS in April. However, he has absolutely crashed into the wall, turning in a .584 OPS in July after a .592 OPS in June. With Ortiz back, Ellsbury becomes the biggest question mark in that lineup. While the Red Sox could win with Ellsbury playing at a lower level than less fall, it becomes a hell of a lot easier with a burner like Ellsbury at the top of the lineup. He has proven his postseason mettle, now he just needs to rediscover what made him such a force last fall.

2. John Lackey, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

As I was writing this post, the Angels acquired Mark Teixeira from the Atlanta Braves. To me, that makes them the clear cut favorite to win the AL pennant and possibly the World Series. They basically have their division locked up and own the majors’ best record, so I didn’t see any reason to put anyone on this list. But then I saw that Lackey held the Boston Red Sox hitless into the ninth inning, which got me thinking. Much like the Angels were the only team to perpetually give the Yankees trouble in the past five years, the Red Sox have held that same role for the Angels. En route to titles in both 2004 and 2007, the Red Sox swept the Angels in the divisional round. For the Angels to avoid this pitfall, they will need good pitching from Ervin Santana, Joe Saunders, and most importantly John Lackey, who showed tonight that he has the stuff to stymie that Red Sox attack. If he can do it again come October, the Angels will be hosting Game 1 of the World Series come October.

1. Manny Ramirez, Boston Red Sox

What is left to say about this man? He is the best pure right-handed hitter of the last twenty years, he is a proven winner, and as usually happens this time of year, he is getting antsy and talking to the media again. He says he wants out of Boston, and that’s fine.

Manny has always played his best ball when he is just being himself, and when he puts himself in the spotlight, he always comes through. He bats cleanup for the defending world champions, and if this is indeed his last hurrah with the Red Sox, he is bound to go out with a bang, which makes him the most dangerous player in the American League from this moment forth. The Boston faithful will forgive any verbal transgressions if he keeps playing the way he has for the entirety of his Boston career. The Red Sox may not be the favorites anymore, but they are still a World Series contender and will be so until Manny is making another fan base roll their eyes.

Oh, and is there a better description of a mystery man than Manny Ramirez?

Since I am the appointed fantasy expert for SABR Neighbor, I figure it’s about time I earn my paycheck and offer some advice on the game that makes any Average Ben think he can be a major league general manager. Fantasy leagues come in many shapes and sizes, but a few maxims hold true throughout all of them. For instance, you won’t be winning anything if you don’t prepare for your draft, understand your league’s scoring system, or pay attention to the waiver wire. Those are simple. But another factor that is difficult to master and is sometimes overlooked is the ability to be a force in your league’s trade market. To become a trade master, you have to learn the dynamics of each manager in your league and know when to pick your spots. Here are a few pointers to ensure you will be pulling off heists throughout your fantasy season.

1. Identify The Sucker.

“If you can’t spot the sucker in the first half hour at the table, then you are the sucker.” While Matt Damon’s character in Rounders was referring to a poker game, the same can be applied to fantasy baseball. The Sucker is easier to spot in a keeper league or a league where you know most of the participants, but you can weed him out in your public leagues, too. Were you the guy who drafted Chase Utley with the sixth pick in your league, only to have PhilsPhan48 picking behind you start flipping out that you picked “his guy”? You might have found your Sucker. By identifying this owner as a trade target, you immediately know that he will probably overpay for Utley and any other fantasy-worthy player on the Phillies. Taking the time to learn the tendencies of the other managers in your league will make your life much easier when it comes to making trades.

2. Identify The Demolition Man.

There are certain fantasy managers who are never satisfied with the lineup that they produce on a daily basis, no matter how good it is. For example, I am in first place in my keeper league. I am 18 games better than the 2nd place team, and 39 games better than the next-best team in my conference. I have lost 38 statistical categories in the first 16 weeks of the season. Despite all this, I am always a late night of drinking away from trading away half my team. I have traded Carl Crawford, Carlos Zambrano, Chipper Jones, Kerry Wood, and Cliff Lee during this past season, mainly because I was bored/itching to make a trade. While I have an agenda in every trade I make, a lot of my trading happens because I am bored. I am the definition of a Demolition Man, and it is only because I know the dynamic of my own league that I haven’t sold my entire team out of sheer boredom. (Sidebar: Everyone in my league wants to beat me very badly because I have the best team by far, and I have therefore only made four trades all year.)

3. Target the TKOs.

To put it in rather simple terms, the TKO is the guy who is out of contention for the playoffs by the All-Star Break and is ripe to have his team plucked. While there is always the outside chance of a miracle fantasy run to nab a playoff spot, it’s more likely that the steady stream of body blows this manager has taken throughout the season has rendered him broken. In a non-keeper league, this can lead to message board tirades and calls for the commissioner’s head, but the strategy can work in favor of both teams in a keeper league. Last year, I was in need of a starting pitcher at the deadline who would get wins. I dealt Matt Cain (3.65 ERA, .235 OBA, 16 losses on a horrific San Francisco team) to the 9th place team for John Smoltz (3.11 ERA, 14 wins on a good Atlanta team). While some attempted to veto the trade, the fact of the matter was that I was trading a potential keeper for a pitcher over fifteen years older in a move to win the league in 2007. The TKO is the perfect trading partner if you’re looking to pick up a mid-level closer, outfielder, or anyone else that could be relevant but may not warrant a keeper selection.

4. Be Mindful of Trends.

Has player X blown four of his last six save opportunities? Has player Y been more hesitant on the basepaths ever since that collision at second base? Has player Z been unable to close a game ever since giving up a mammoth playoff home run to Albert Pujols? (Ok, player Z was Brad Lidge circa 2006, but you know what I mean.) While it is obvious that you want to pick up a player during a hot streak and stay away from him during a cold streak, not every manager has the timing and intelligence to use those streaks to their advantage in the trade market. Robinson Cano, a habitually slow starter, has turned it on after the All-Star break in each of the last three seasons. If you were one of the people who believed he would do the same this year and made a deal for him before the All-Star game, you are already reaping the rewards. Yunel Escobar started the season on a tear for Atlanta and I managed to deal him in a trade that bettered my team. What I’m saying here is do not take streaks at face value. Pay attention to the underlying reasons for them (rookie pitcher’s first time through the league, lingering injury, lineup shuffle, etc.) and try to trade them at their peak value.

5. Have Lady Luck on Your Side.

Not something you can control, but a lot of times the success of a trade just boils down to luck. I’ll use my biggest trade of the year as an example. I traded Carl Crawford, Carlos Zambrano, Yunel Escobar, and CJ Wilson for Alex Rios, David Ortiz, and Jose Valverde. In this scenario, I was upgrading the closer position, moving a player who I had no room for (Escobar), and moving a speed guy when I had plenty of speed on my team. Additionally, Escobar and Wilson got off to tremendous starts and I figured they would play back to the curve. I was getting one of the biggest run producers in one of baseball’s best lineups (Ortiz), and a young outfielder who was ready to make a leap to the upper echelon of fantasy outfielders (Rios). Now as we all know, Ortiz has been injured for a good portion of the year and Rios is having a disappointing year. If those two played up to 80% of their projected stats, the trade would have been decidedly in my favor. And that’s one of the funny things about fantasy baseball. You just never know when a sure thing is going to blow up in your face.

See, trading isn’t that difficult. So to sum up, as long as you can identify the tendencies of the managers in your league and be mindful of what’s going on in the major leagues every day, you will find that it is not too hard to control the trade market and stand atop the pile of vanquished foes come the end of the season.

Well the All-Star game has come and gone folks and I’m not sure which caused more controversy, the posts here at SABR Neighbor before the All-Star game, or the horrendous extra-inning affair of the All-Star game itself. Either way, like I said the game has come and gone and now it’s down to business as the non-waiver trade deadline approaches and pennant races are heating up across the MLB. Here’s a look at those tight pennant races:

AL East (Current Leaders as of July 22-Tampa Bay 1.5 games ahead of Boston)

These upstart Tampa Bay Rays are still sitting atop the AL East which usually has a leader from either the Bronx or Beantown at this point in the season. The New York Yankees are sitting at 4.5 games behind the Rays but have been dealt a major blow to their lineup by losing Jorge Posada once again to the DL with shoulder problems. Posada could go under the knife for season-ending surgery and would only increase the likelihood that the Yankees miss the postseason for the first time since ’93.

The Boston Red Sox are getting David Ortiz back this week which will only add another run producer to that high-octane offense of theirs. J.D. Drew (.949 OPS, 55 RBI) really helped to carry Read the rest

Technorati Tags: Tampa Bay Rays, New York Yankees, Jorge Posada, Boston Red Sox, David Ortiz, J.D. Drew

Few things stir up as much debate as the All-Star team, even within SABR Neighbor. Should every player play, who should start, which closer should get the ball with the game on the line, and of course, who got the metaphorical shaft from everyone involved in the process.

I have some serious problems with the National League team, so here are five men who should be representing the National League, along with players that could have their roster spots revoked.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Derrek Lee, Chicago Cubs (.305, 15 HR, 53 RBI, 60 R) - I understand that there already six Cubs in the All-Star Game, but I would have no problem giving him the roster spot currently occupied by Carlos Zambrano, who has nearly identical stats to Johan Santana, who you may have heard of.

Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati Reds (.289, 14 HR, 56 RBI, 18 SB) - One of the best young second basemen in the game who continues to fly under the radar because he’s mired in Ohio. He’s better across the board than Miguel Tejada, who has tailed off over the past few weeks.

Jose Reyes, New York Mets (.299, 9 HR, 38 RBI, 32 SB) - He’s quietly having a very good year for New York’s other team, and even though he’s overrated, he’s almost on pace for a 20/60 year, which should put him on the team ahead of Cristian Guzman. Now that takes away Washington’s only All-Star, so I introduce you to…

Jon Rauch, Washington Nationals (4-2, 17 saves, 40:6 K:BB) - …Jon Rauch. I mentioned it in my pitchers preview column, but he deserves to be there based on the fact that the Nats have to send somebody and he’s saved half of the Washington wins. And don’t use the argument that he has blown five saves, because so has Billy Wagner. Give him Brian Wilson’s spot.

Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies (9-6, 3.18 ERA, 118 Ks) - I don’t want to go into it too much, because Hamels has similar numbers to a few other pitchers and has the majors’ best bullpen behind him to protect a lot of his leads. The Mets have hung Johan out to dry on multiple occasions- he should have three more wins, which would have landed him in the All-Star Game. But he can take Aaron Cook’s place, who was lucky enough to have Clint Hurdle managing this year.

I also feel like I need to make a comment on SABR Neighbor’s own Stan Whyte post about the “snubbing” of Pat Burrell and Ryan Howard. I understand defending your team’s players, it’s what we as fans do, but Burrell and Howard are NOT All-Stars. Being in the top 5 in home runs does not make you an automatic All-Star. Howard has impressive power numbers, but he’s batting .225 and has almost as many strikeouts (124) as Ian Kinsler does hits (126). He is going to annihilate his own single-season strikeout record. That makes him a ferocious power hitter, not an All-Star. As for outfielders, it’s almost criminal that either Carlos Lee or Corey Hart will not be in the game (potentially neither), two outfielders who are having better overall years than Burrell.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

This was much tougher in the American League, because Terry Francona and crew did a pretty good job of picking the team this year (with the exception of J.D. Drew and the artist formerly known as Jason Varitek). I can’t really give a player any of these guys would replace, just that they could have made the team and probably would have in any other year.

John Lackey, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (6-2, 1.93 ERA) - He didn’t get picked because he was injured for six weeks, but he has been a top five starting pitcher in the American League this year.

Shaun Marcum, Toronto Blue Jays (5-4, 2.65 ERA, 1.00 WHIP) - Low win total kept this youngster out of the game this year. Fourth best ERA in the AL this year.

John Danks, Chicago White Sox (6-4, 2.52 ERA) - See Marcum, Shaun. Third best ERA in the AL this year.

Jermaine Dye, Chicago White Sox (.302, 19 HR, 52 RBI) - I know he’s on the ballot for the last spot, but he should have J.D. Drew’s spot. We’re supposed to be impressed because a lauded player with all the tools who never gave a crap finally seems to give a crap? Really? After screwing over two franchises? Really? God, I hate J.D. Drew.

Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners (6-5, 2.83 ERA) - See Marcum, Shaun and Danks, John. Add to the fact that he is widely considered to have the nastiest “stuff” in baseball, and that he is the lone bright spot in a miserable season in Seattle.

Ever since Sunday night, I’ve spent most of the time sitting at my laptop voting for Pat Burrell to receive the final roster spot on the NL All-Star team. Apparently, 22 HRs, 20 2Bs, and an OBP of .409 is not enough to receive an outright spot on the team. For the life of me I wish fan voting was done away with all-together because you get guys like Kosuke Fukodome (35 RBIs, 8 SB) and Alfonso Soriano (.283 AVG, 15HR) in the starting lineup who’s numbers clearly pale in comparison to Burrell’s and, oh I almost forgot this other guy who got left off the team.

RYAN HOWARD, 1B, Philadelphia Phillies (24 HR, NL leader with 78 RBI)

Apparently those types of numbers, along with having the respect of being a recently named MVP also does not get you a spot on the all-star team. Sorry to break your hearts kids, but unless you hit at least .250 with 100 RBIs in the first half, or just play in either Boston or Chicago, you probably have no chance of making the all-star team. No disrespect to Albert “I should’ve been MVP in ‘06” Pujols (.346 AVG, 48 RBI), but his numbers just do not match up to Howard’s. Let’s also add in the fact that Howard has been a major run-producer in that potent Phillies offense all year long. Pujols however, has been on the DL this season with a strained calf for the 2^nd place St. Louis Cardinals. Is NL all-star team manager Clint Hurdle still fuming over the fact that Jimmy Rollins got picked over Matt “I never touched home plate” Holliday for MVP last season? Is that why he picked Pujols? Jealousy ruins lives ladies and gentleman, it ruins lives.

Here’s another name for you. COLE HAMELS, SP, Philadelphia Phillies (9W, 128.7 IP)

If this post seems biased, it’s not. This is based on players who have performed very well for a first place team and are not getting picked for some odd reason. Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Ryan Dempster has similar numbers to Hamels and was actually picked for the all-star team. However, as shown above, Hamels’ IP are second in the NL and had two, count ‘em, two complete game shutouts this season. Dempster, on the other hand, has no complete game shutouts. Also add to the fact that Hamels is the ace of the Phillies staff and has performed like one. Dempster is just the third man in the Cubs rotation and if you asked around, you would probably hear that Dempster isn’t the key to the Cubbies ending their 100-year World Series drought.

Three snubs, all from the same team, and only has a chance of making the all-star team. I better go to mlb.com and vote like crazy for Pat in the next few days.

Technorati Tags: Pat Burrell, NL All-Star team, voting, Kosuke Fukodome, Alfonso Soriano, RYAN HOWARD, Philadelphia Phillies, St. Louis Cardinals, Clint Hurdle, Jimmy Rollins, COLE HAMELS, Ryan Dempster

Well it’s official. A little over a day after their interstate rival Milwaukee Brewers aquired Cleveland Indian’s ace C.C. Sabathia in a four player deal, the Chicago Cubs have answered right back with a deal of their own.  The Cubbies, in their push for the 2008 World Series, have traded with the A’s for pitcher Rich Harden. In addition to Harden they have also picked up Chad Gaudin as well.  This is a major move for the Cubs and it was essential for them to keep up in the “arms” race with the Brewers.  But who got the better deal?

Of course if we were talking in terms who is most likely to beat Kobayashi in a hot dog eating contest, or who is more likely to first try to eat a person dressed as a large bratwurst between innings of a game I would have to say C.C. is the better man. And even being a completely bias fan of the Cubs I would like jump out and say the cubs made the better deal but let’s take a look. But before we do, the Brew Crew may actually be the first team in baseball history to have successfully added a reigning Cy Young award winner while also creating the fattest team in the game (their next move is Bobby Jenks to complete the trifecta).

All jokes aside C.C. Sabathia is a dominating lefty, and the reigning AL Cy Young winner.  In 2008 Sabathia has however only led his team to 6 wins in 18 starts and had a terrible start to the season.  He is however still one of the league leaders in strike outs with 123 K’s in 122 innings pitched.  I’d say thats pretty good, but he has also given up 117 hits in those innings as well which could scare any fan. He is currently sporting a 3.88 ERA but that may go down after today because as I am writing this he is making his debut for the crew and throwing a shutout.  C.C. brings a veteran presence to the Brewers which they will need for the rest of the season if they will make a push at the Cubs.

Harden on the other hand is 5-1 in 13 starts this season with a 2.34 ERA and was one of the best pitchers the A’s had to offer.  Harden has pitched 77 innings and has given up only 57 hits, a significantly better ratio than C.C.’s. Don’t judge too quickly though, Harden has also walked 31 batters in 77 innings while C.C. has walked only 34 in 122 innings.  Harden is very young and has a lot of potential.  In my opinion he is one of the best potentials in the league, but that being said he is always at risk of injury.  He missed games this year as well as last and has had surgery and I fear he is one of those guys who just can never stay healthy. 

All in all, having compared both pitchers I think that pound for pound (pun intended), the Brewers got the better deal, but only time will tell.  Let the games begin.

I was waiting until the latest edition of the Phils-Mets rivalry was over to do this week’s division preview. Unfortunately, Fernando “I can hit two grand slams in the same inning” Tatis wanted to play the role of hero and put me in somewhat of a bitter mood tonight. But alas, here’s the NL East Preview for this upcoming week.

After a dismal June where they finished 12-14, with an interleague record of 4-11, those Phitin’ Phils are still in first place in the NL East. Thanks to another sweep of the Braves in Atlanta and inconsistent play from the Florida Marlins, the Philadelphia Phillies have a 2.5 game lead in the division as of July 6th.

The Phillies will take on the New York Mets for one more game Monday night and will be looking for a split of the four game set. After that, the Phillies will remain at home to take on the St. Louis Cardinals for a three game tilt. Strangely enough, in early June, the Phils faced the Cards for a three-game set at Busch Stadium in which the Phils scored 20 runs in the first game of the series and then only managed eight runs in the next two games. They lost two out of three that series and look to build some momentum before the all-star break.

Once the Cards leave, the Arizona Diamondbacks will visit the friendly confines of Citizens Bank Park for another three game series. Other than Chase Utley, Brad Lidge, and possibly Pat Burrell, the Phils will be off until the next Friday where they enter a stretch of play against only NL East opponents. The Phillies are 12-6 so far this season against the NL West so you would only be left to believe that the Phillies can continue their winning ways against baseball’s weakest division.

Just as the Phillies had a dismal month of June, the Marlins fared no better as they finished the month with a 12-16 record. Even though this team leads the majors in home runs with 125, their pitching has been horrendous. Just ask Matt Holliday and the Colorado Rockies. Nonetheless, this team has two all-stars this year in “His name is” Dan Uggla and starting NL shortstop Hanley “I wanna be just like J-Roll” Ramirez. Their potent lineup will keep them in the hunt for the pennant in the 2^nd half.

The Marlins will head to the West Coast this week to take on the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers for three and four games respectively. The Padres are one of the worst teams in baseball with a 35-53 record as of July 6^th. The Padres are 3-7 in their last ten games and are 15^th in the NL in runs scored per game with 3.72 and actually score just 3.6 runs per game at home. What about the Marlins you ask? They score an NL best 5.59 runs per game on the road.

However, after dealing with the struggling Padres, the Marlins will have to deal with those surging Dodgers who are just a half game out of first place in their division. The Dodgers lead the NL in team ERA with 4.02 and are even better at home with a sparkling ERA 3.33. That doesn’t bode very well for the Marlins who will most certainly be road weary once they enter Chavez Ravine.

Those New York Mets are starting to look Read the rest

Technorati Tags: NL East, Florida Marlins, Philadelphia Phillies, New York Mets, St. Louis Cardinals, Busch Stadium, Arizona Diamondbacks, Citizens Bank Park, Chase Utley, Brad Lidge, Pat Burrell, NL West, Matt Holliday, Colorado Rockies, Dan Uggla, San Diego Padres, Los Angeles Dodgers, Chavez Ravine, New York Mets